4 - Why Prediction Has Limits (Even with Perfect Models)

If we have a perfect model, we should be able to do perfect prediction… right? Not always. In this lecture, we explore how inherent system properties can limit prediction. This is the fourth video in Nan Chen and I’s Applied Mathematics in Geoscience series where we explore short insights into big questions. This series is based on a joint work: "An Applied Mathematics Perspective on Modern Geosciences" by Nan Chen, Reza Malek-Madani, Pedram Hassanzadeh, Samuel N. Stechmann, Amy Braverman, Hannah Christensen, Anne Gelb, Michael Ghil, Dimitris Giannakis, Chris Jones, Ruby Leung, Matthias Morzfeld, Charlotte Moser, Tim Palmer, Christian Sampson, Themistoklis Sapsis, Tiffany Shaw, Andrew Stuart, Jonathan Weare, Laure Zanna. We thank all collaborators for their contributions. We would like to give a special thank you to Dr. Reza Malek-Madani for his helpful discussions and feedback on the video series.