This videos outlines counterfactual skepticism, which proposes that most ordinary counterfactuals are false, defended most famously by Alan Hájek.
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0:00 - Introduction
1:38 - Chance undermines "would"
12:03 - "Might" undermines "would"
15:07 - Underspecification of antecedents
19:58 - Disjunctive poisoning
24:10 - Quasi-miracles
29:57 - Contextualism
36:31 - Objections to contextualism