Conditional Probabilities and the Academy Awards

What's the probability American Hustle wins the 2014 Oscars? Let's use conditional probabilities and spreadsheets to find out! The related tutorial can be found here: www.spreadsheetsolving.com/conditional-probability. The sample spreadsheet link is https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArU-OSCYb_YpdFRBRWNpY3kwN3FlcjRyTEpodjlkQWc&usp=sharing