Conditional Probabilities (SOA Exam P – Probability – General Probability Module)

Master conditional probability for SOA Exam P using simple Venn-diagram logic. In this lesson we work only in words and pictures (no formulas) to answer questions like “What’s the chance a farmer grew beans given they’re from Alabama?” You’ll see how to read the condition, restrict the sample, and count the right regions of the diagram. We finish with a mixed “given A or B” example you’re likely to see on Exam P. AnalystPrep Actuarial Exams Study Packages (video lessons, study notes, question bank, and quizzes) can be found at https://analystprep.com/shop/actuarial-exams-complete-courses-by-analystprep/ After completing this video you should be able to: - Define and calculate conditional probabilities. Examples given in the video: A survey of 2000 farmers in the southeast U.S. last year revealed the following information: 351 were from the state of Alabama 1205 grew beans 1110 grew cotton 234 were from Alabama and grew beans 221 were from Alabama and grew cotton 663 grew both beans and cotton 143 were from Alabama and grew both beans and cotton 1. A surveyed farmer from Alabama is selected. Determine the probability that this farmer grew beans. 2. Determine the probability that a surveyed farmer grew beans or cotton, given the farmer is from Alabama. #ConditionalProbability #SOAExamP #ActuarialScience #Probability #Statistics #VennDiagrams #ExamPrep