Prof. Witold F. Krajewski | Hydrometeorological Challenges in Forecasting Streamflow

Event site: https://go.umd.edu/krajewski Seminar schedule & archive: https://go.umd.edu/essicseminar Abstract: Recent technological innovations in computing, communication, sensors, and informatics stimulate development of new capabilities and challenges. In this talk, the author focuses on real-time riverine streamflow and flood forecasting and discusses some old and new challenges and deficiencies in our scientific understanding of the key relevant aspects. To illustrate his points, he conceptualizes river flow as a continuum across scales from a single hillslope to a large river basin emphasizing rainfall to runoff conversion vs. flow routing. He examines the role of rainfall quantities vs. our observational and predictive modeling capabilities. Can we estimate (QPE) rainfall well enough? How well is well enough? What is the worth of rainfall forecasting (QPF) for skillful streamflow forecasting? Does it depend on spatial and temporal scales? How? Another basic challenge is our inability to decompose the predictive uncertainty into that due to the inputs (e.g. rainfall and evapotranspiration) and that due to the rainfall-runoff model. The author also touches on the challenges presented by the proper use of data assimilation and artificial intelligence. Biosketch: Dr. Witold F. Krajewski is the Rose & Joseph Summers Chair in Water Resources Engineering at the University of Iowa. He also serves as Director of the Iowa Flood Center. Dr. Krajewski’s scientific interests concern measuring, modeling, and forecasting precipitation using radar and satellite remote sensing. His current research focuses on understanding the genesis and evolution of floods through field data and modeling, and the quantification of uncertainty in hydrologic prediction at a range of temporal and spatial scales. Dr. Krajewski has published over 260 papers in refereed journals on these topics. He is a member of the National Academy of Engineering, American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and a fellow of the American Geophysical Union and the American Meteorological Society. He has served on numerous committees and panels of these and other professional organizations, and on the editorial boards of several journals. He was editor of Advances in Water Resources. In 2012, he was chair of the Board of Directors of the Consortium of Universities for the Advancement of Hydrologic Science, Inc.