The Strike Zone Got SMALLER?!

Called strikes one ball off the plate are more accurate than ever. But just on the plate? That's another story. Let's dig into how MLB changing the umpire's "buffer zone" created both the smallest and most accurate strike zone ever. We'll also consider the implications of the smaller zone on pitch framing, the ABS challenge system and long-term impacts of a smaller zone on pitching development. My Substack can be found here: https://lancebroz.substack.com/ The Athletic's Article on the Strike Zone: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6328105/2025/05/01/mlb-umpire-strike-zone-buffer-zone-change/ Driveline Baseball's Pitch Model Leaderboard tweet: https://x.com/jacklambert__/status/1918750619457802307 Data on challenge system accuracy is from MLB: https://www.mlb.com/news/automated-ball-strike-system-results-mlb-spring-training-2025#:~:text=According%20to%20data%20released%20Wednesday,in%20Triple%2DA%20in%202024. Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lancebroz/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@lancebroz X: https://twitter.com/LanceBroz TJ Stat's Patreon, can be found here: https://www.patreon.com/c/tj_stats/posts?redirect=true Video and images: MLB, USA Today, Associated Press, MLB.tv 0:00 The Strike Zone Shrunk 0:18 What is the “Shadow” Zone? 1:10 More Accurate Off Plate 2:26 The Umps’ “Buffer” Zone 3:26 Less Accurate In-Zone Calls 4:13 Why Does it Matter? 4:59 Catcher Framing is Messed Up 6:21 Challenge System Impact 7:37 Pitching Development Recalculation? 9:12 Unintended Consequences