Week 4 of Business Forecasting introduces students to building and interpreting basic forecasting models, with a focus on simple yet powerful approaches such as naïve, seasonal naïve, and moving average methods. Students learn how these models use historical patterns to generate future predictions and how to evaluate their performance using accuracy measures like error metrics. Emphasis is placed on understanding when each model is appropriate, especially in relation to trend and seasonality observed in time series data. By applying these techniques, learners develop practical skills in producing forecasts, comparing model results, and making informed business decisions based on data-driven projections.
