When Predictive Probability Outperforms Intuition | Berry Consultants

Everyone making game-time decisions intuitively gets predictive probability. A four-run lead in the fourth inning is different than the same lead in the eighth, because there's less time left to flip the outcome. Dr. Nick Berry describes that, unlike regression to the mean (which fights our instincts), predictive probability aligns with how we naturally think. It's the foundation of smart decision-making in sports, trials, and anywhere uncertainty matters. Learn more on the latest episode of "In the Interim..." https://www.berryconsultants.com/resource/59-drug-development-and-sports-the-10-run-rule-and-futility