SOA Exam P Question 20 | Conditional Probability

An insurance company issues life insurance policies in three separate categories: standard, preferred, and ultra-preferred. Of the company’s policyholders, 50% are standard, 40% are preferred, and 10% are ultra-preferred. Each standard policyholder has probability 0.010 of dying in the next year, each preferred policyholder has probability 0.005 of dying in the next year, and each ultra-preferred policyholder has probability 0.001 of dying in the next year. A policyholder dies in the next year. Calculate the probability that the deceased policyholder was ultra-preferred. (A) 0.0001 (B) 0.0010 (C) 0.0071 (D) 0.0141 (E) 0.2817 You can find the link to the questions below: https://www.soa.org/globalassets/assets/Files/Edu/edu-exam-p-sample-quest.pdf The link to the answers below: https://www.soa.org/globalassets/assets/Files/Edu/edu-exam-p-sample-sol.pdf Check out my other channel Rumi's Life: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCJmFvrltr0Xht150O4lgTIA Email: [email protected]